4. Professional Gambler Who Shares the Insight Numbers David Marut w/ Favazza

You have to have a definition of success. If I could go back, there's does not many things that I would go back for, but

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It's okay to struggle. It's okay. That you're not.

Okay. I am your host, Greg philoso together. We will go on a journey. This show is. Passing our internal dialogue. We discovering your true identity who need new foresight. We

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example today and become your future self tomorrow. If you can leave our viewers with some good advice to follow, what would you let them know? These things that you're afraid

to do?

I think so you need a bank roll of a thousand dollars. Well, I don't have a thousand dollars to throw at, you know, gambling. So I've kind of looked at different strategies, different concepts, money management, and put them together into some ideas that I have with. And it's something that I'm obviously working on trying to make it so that, you know, the average joke and can go to the casino or get online and throw a couple bucks at it and give it a shot. That was

David Merritt. Welcome back to your transformation podcast. And I'm your host, Greg for? And that is our guest. Today. We have David merit. He looks into the profitability of roulette and making it a fair game against the house. This is a really good episode. If you have not subscribed to the show, hit that subscribe button, David. Welcome. Welcome to your transformation podcast, David let's jump right into this. How did

this all start? Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me on the show. I really appreciate that. It's kind of a combination of everything that I've studied from everyone. Else's attempts to beat the casino. If you will, you know, and develop that strategy that, uh, we'll take down the house and fill your pockets full of money. And so. Looked at different strategies, different concepts, money management, and things like that, and put them together into some ideas that I have of my own. Um, and of course studying the game of roulette itself, not just the strategies, but the payouts, the layout, uh, how the game works and how it operates, the inconsistencies in it, but the actual consistencies that you can still find. And I just I've always loved numbers. Um, and of course studying the game of roulette itself, not just the strategies, but the payouts late. Uh, how the game works and how it operates, the inconsistency in it, but the actual consistencies that you can still. I don't know, I came across roulette a

little while back. I attended an old Robert Kiyosaki event. I was, we, we looked into it a little bit is understanding

the roulette

a 50 50 between the two, but which makes it the house of slight game of 47%

of 53. What was that? 40, what was that? Number? 47. You got it. That's, that's the key right there. Not sure if those numbers

are really relatable with the stock market, I'm a hundred percent on those numbers.

You were spot on what they were saying is exactly right. And then I think what they were trying to do is equate that to how the stock market works. And there's a lot of people out there including myself that at one time, when I was playing around with the stock market, I actually invested based on like what I saw in the graph. It was kind of, uh, it's kind of the track record of the company, or not necessarily the company per se. But how the company was doing on the stock market, at least, right. How the investors viewed that stock. And so you could see trends in the rise and fall of the line graph or the candlestick graph as they sometimes use. And so like, if you were to see a spike with a certain number on a roulette table, you would then realize, Hey, at some point. This area of the table, or this number is going to come back down to, you know, the regression to the mean, if you will, David, tell me this, how

do you think people see the difference in investing

in gambling? The difference that people look at with stock market versus gambling, sports investing, or betting is what they call it, um, is that, you know, they frown upon the gambling and sports betting because it doesn't seem to have that same aura of a business. Give your money to someone that they can manage and invest in the companies because they can look at the companies, do research data collection financials, and all this and say, Hey, this is, this looks like a solid company. Let's go. Okay, but you and I can both agree that that's still a risk. I mean, you look at a company or business and you can do some research on it. Right. And say my examples, Chipotle Mexican grill, because I actually did do some investing in that company. And it's a great restaurant. I loved it. I think it came to the east coast where I was in college at the time around 2001 or two. And so I was like, yeah, Fascinated me this place, you can come in and get great food, quick, sit down and eat. And it was delicious cost-effective and it was great. It could, and that for sure was a business. I thought, Hey, let me tell my grandfather about this one. So we got talking about it, invested in it, made some money on it, which was great. It's still is a risk to put money down on a business and hope that it succeeds, right? No, no, no.

So I get what you're saying, as far as it's, there's no guarantee with putting your money in the stock market

and that's my point. And so when people come to me and say, oh, well, gambling, you gotta be careful with that. And I was like, sure, but you don't feel the same way about giving money to someone you don't know to manage it for you. You know, put it down on a business and take a risk that it succeeds. So that's kind of where all this started for me. And then of course, I just, as a curious person, I'm always trying to make everything better. Right? How can I make it faster? How can I make it better? And so it led me to this gentleman that I came across is a YouTube channel. Y'all can check it out. Great guy. Um, he's a, the goal 60 and that's his, um, YouTube handle. And he's a great guy. He's very open. Um, he's kind of has a similar heart that I have, which is if, and when I do come across this holy grail of betting strategy or sports investing strategy, I want to share it with people and, uh, give them the chance to be able to. Hopefully become successfully, uh, successful financially. So I came across his page and I'm just watching his videos. I'm kind of like, I'm really intrigued. He's got something going on here. That seems good. And basically what he had was a chase betting system on baseball games and in the baseball season, you've got every team plays pretty much anytime they play another team they're playing for two or three, maybe even four games straight. So it, it provides an opportunity for you to tell. Uh, look at both teams study. Look at all their data, the batting averages, the pitching, everything, and say, Hey, I think that this is a good value on this team. I'm going to invest my money on this team to beat this one. The good thing about this system is if you lose that first initial game, they play again the next day. Right? So you can jump back in. And with a good money management strategy, you put more on the next bet and then it winds back any losses and you have a profit as well. So you just keep chasing it. Yeah. It's called a chase betting system and it's something, it's something that I really, uh, it was kinda my first overall strategy that I looked into and thought, man, this is brilliant. I wonder if I can use this elsewhere. If you know anything about gambling, you've probably heard of the Martin Gale strategy. No, I have been. Okay. So the Martin Gayle bedding strategy is where if you put down a $5 bet on, let's talk about roulette real quick, you have red or black, right? So you put a $5 bet down on red. But black comes up. So you lose your $5. Right? Well, the Martin Gill strategy tells you to double up. So you go from five to 10. So now you put $10 down on the red, and if it wins, you win your money back that you lost and a $5 profit, and you just continue to double up on every single loss that you have until you finally get a win. The problem with that is the Martin strategy can be quickly like it's. Nobody has an infinite amount of money. Right? So at some point you're going to have a last bet and run out. You know, you go from five to 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 40, so on and so forth until it's. Tens of thousands of dollars and only 13 or 14 beds in, I think it is. So it doubles and accumulates very quickly. Me being an

inexperienced better, that would make me nervous. What about your intuition? Is that going to be beneficial when you're applying the

system? The thing with that is sometimes honestly, intuition. Um, but what I'm trying to do is create a system that takes intuition and all of that out of the equation literally is like, as you and I know two plus two equals four, right? Well, if you were to take out that one of those twos and it's like two plus X equals four, Do the mathematical equation to find out what X equals plugin to well, w I kind of want to create, and that's what I'm working on. And I think I'm very close to creating exactly that. Where when you see a certain scenario, you can do a quick little, Hey, Hey, this is coming up, you know, for lack of a better term there, Hey, my indicator just happened and you know where to place your bet and how to. What should I do first prior to implementing this system? So you go about it in a smart way. Okay. So you do your research, you collect the data, you study it and then you place your investment. Right? So I was really, uh, uh, intrigued by what, uh, the goal 60 had on his page there. I was watching each video or going through it and, uh, it, it kinda led me to think, okay, Hey, there's X amount of sporting events for him. It was baseball that we were working with together and, uh, it was baseball and they played only, I think it was like 13 and there's a lot of opportunities to make money and invest your money on each game each day. But I wanted more because each game took, you know, three hours to play. And if you lose, you have to wait until the next day, 24 hours later to invest with your money management strategy to win it back and get a profit. It took too long, which that is what led me to the casino. And I saw a documentary on, um, w what's known as a bias wheel. This gentlemen in Monte Carlo, he discovered he's like, Hey, there's gotta be a way. And I think we all have this. There there's a fixation on how can we take down the house? I couldn't be right. Well, this guy did it. I don't remember his name, forgive me, but he was from Monte, Monte Carlo. And he went to the casinos there and studied the wheels. And he started collecting massive amounts of data. He would sit there for hours upon hours and actually it got so much, it got to the point where he was spending so many hours in the casino. He needed help. So I wish I was kidding, man. I'm not cousins, brothers, uncles. He called family and said, Hey, I have an idea. I think I I've come across something, but I need your help. And they bought in and they decided to help him. So they all individually went into the casinos, placed very nominal, nothing like no bets, very little or no bets. It was mainly about collecting data. So they wrote down a number seven came in number 31 came in and wrote it down and collected all this. They got together, put it all into a computer spreadsheet. Okay. The computer analyzed all the data and told them the number that came up on each wheel the most, and how often, pretty much on an average that that number would come up. So they realized that there is something called a bias, which just means that the wheel might have a, I don't know, a dent in it while the ball's going around. It hits that dent. And for some reason, when it hits that dent and it's not on any other wheel, right. It was created by maybe a dealer. Bring it or something who knows, but now the ball and the wheels spin together and land in a pocket more often than anything. Well, let's pause for a second. When

you said a dent

in that like, like, like chipped on the, on

the, on the wheel. Like, can you go into

that a little bit? Sure, absolutely. What they were noticing is that when a wheel gets used in a casino over time, you have wear and tear like any machine it wears and tell you, you have to get an oil change on the car and all that. Well, the roulette wheels, no difference. So the ball will spin and spin and spin. And then there's these little. They're like little speed bumps almost if you will. Right. And the ball hits them and starts to like rattle around and then land in a pocket with a number associated with it. And it's those little, uh, bumpers or speed bumps on the wheel there that can wear down over time with the ball hit. X amount of times more than maybe the other side of the wheel. And so, yeah. So if it hits it enough, it's kind of like that persistent, uh it's what's that say, like persistence will get you through, right. I don't know what the saying is. Come on, bear with me here, but, but basically like even water can cut through a rock. With a constant drip, right? We've all known that gripping over time. It wears away at the rock. Well, same thing with that, that ball spinning around on the wheel. It'll hit those bumpers and create little indentations or dents on them over time. And so depending on where, how many, how often, and, you know, whatever with the ball hitting that bumper, it can cause the ball to react in such a way. That for some reason or other don't don't ask me, but the ball lands in one pocket more often than another. And for them, they noticed that I believe it was the number six. If I'm not mistaken, the number six kept popping up over and over and over again, like quite often. And so with all their data collection, they decided to, to pull their money together. And they said, we're gonna, we're gonna keep an eye on this wheel. Uh, and they knew where any little mark was on it or whatever, so that the casino, whenever they moved that wheel to a different table, they still knew which wheel it was. Sounds like it's a bank

robbery. Just taking it down from millions.

That's correct. They took it down from millions, uh, so much so that they were banned forever coming back. And they ended up having to like try their luck overseas here in Vegas and Atlantic city and whatnot. So it's, it's quite a story. Um, but I kind of believe that it can't be the only way that really can be beaten. That is what kind of has encouraged me to. All the little bits and pieces of everything I've ever looked at, studied read about watched on YouTube or on documentaries. Roulettes bets, payout, and

probability.

Would this

work for American or European? And what's

the difference? Well, the probabilities are slightly. Because you have a American roulette is in case for those that don't know has the zero and double zero. So two green numbers, uh, European roulette has just a single zero. So one green number and it's those green numbers that give the casino the house edge. So I would only recommend playing the European roulette game, not the American roulette, the double zero and zero. Give the house. Well, it's not another, I think the total is like 5.2, 6% edge over you. And the European roulette is only 2.6 something I believe. So it's better to play the roulette game, uh, than American, for sure.

Interesting. So if we were to go into

the numbers a little bit, yeah. They gave you American relapse. So that's, I can give you the difference in numbers there. So Ken relent it'll be. 47.4%. And for your opinion, extra 1.2% house edge for American relent. Let's do the easiest example, which is probably your outside bets. Okay. Those are your 50 50, or what most people would consider your 50 50 bet. So, uh, before we talk about roulette, let's do a very small, simple example. Again, trying to break. You know, something complicated to something easy to understand a coin has two sides, right? You have heads and you have tails. You have exactly a 50, 50% chance that it would land on either side. Right? Okay. There is no, I mean, unless for some crazy reason, it lands in a crack and it's like standing on its side, that's the only way that could happen. So we all understand that's a, that's a, that's an exact 50, 50 chance of winning. There's no other option. European and American roulette. They have that little green number, uh, for European. It's a single zero for American it's zero and double zero. So two numbers that actually that's what gives the, uh, casino a house edge. So if you are going to bet on red or blue, Most people would think 50, 50 chance. Okay, they're close, but they're not accurate. The casino pays out 50 to 50, but you don't, you don't have an actual 50, 50% chance for American roulette. It's 47.4% chance of winning on red or black. And then for European roulette, it's 48.6, which is a difference of 1.2% more in the house. Uh, more in favor of the casino for their house edge. So that's why I would say. Only stick with European roulette it that little 1.2% over time will eat away at your bank roll and the casino. We'll just take all your money. One other way that the casino actually, um, has a house edge over you, is that the payouts are not what they should be. So for example, if you were to take a bet and put it on. Let's stick with the number six. From my example, before, if you took one ship, $1 chip and put it on the number six and you win the ball, actually lands on number six. You only get paid out 35 to one, but we already discussed earlier that there's 37 numbers on the table. Another way that the casino. Kinda takes money from you slowly but surely and gives them that house edge. They should pay you out 37 to one, but they don't. They only pay out 35 to watch your numbers are the zero and then the double zero. So that makes a mess. That's what American is 38 numbers total that, you know, the ball could land in 38 different pockets. And European roulette is 37 different pockets. It's just that green, single zero

that's payout and probability. And you implemented your own little twist. I ended up being a huge positive for you. Can we go into this?

Yeah. Yeah. It's something that I came across in my research. Um, and I didn't mention this earlier, but during all the time that I'm trying to collect data and study this and everything there, I came across, you know, like anything, you have people that are trying to monetize systems and whatnot. Right. And so I came across a software. That you had a monthly subscription, you have to pay to use it. And it claims you could make all this money and, you know, hundreds of dollars an hour, man. It sounds too good to be true. It probably is too good to be true. Plus the other reason that I, I just don't, I don't have the money to spend $150 every month to give them on something that you don't know if it really works or not. Right. They're telling you it is, but that's the salesmanship. Exactly.

I get those in my email every day, coming through

that's right. Actually, uh, coming across that software, I was interested as to like, are they going to explain anything to me, like, uh, to hook me in and believe them that it works? What is it that. That is going to make me click and buy him. Right. And so give me something. So I look it up and they talk about this law of thirds, which makes perfect sense. When I continued to read about it, study it and then test it. And the law of thirds basically states that. Basically impossible for the roulette wheel as related, it could be pertained to anything, but on the roulette wheel, we'll stick with that. There are 37 possible pockets for the ball to land in. If you were to spin the ball 37 times exactly one for every pocket, would the ball land in every single pocket one. Before we start getting into a second round of 37 more spins. The answer is no, it's just, it just has probably never happened by that. What I mean is, okay, so with crabs, let's do that real quick. You can roll a what people call snake eyes. You have the one in the one, so two, you can roll then, then it would be a three from there. And there's two combinations and ways to roll the number three. And then you have the number four. Uh, three ways to roll the number four and so on and so forth. But if you took the dice and rolled them, you're not going to get snake eyes first. Okay. And if you do, I guarantee you, you don't roll a three next, and then if you try it, I guarantee you don't roll a four next, like you're not going to get it in sequential order like that. Right. What's you'll find are repeats before every slot or dice are rolled. Uh, again, I'll try to bring it down to. Uh, simple terms here. If you put 37 marbles, you have a bag of marbles and they're all labeled one through 37. You have a marble number one, number two, so and so forth. If you were to reach your hand in the bag and pull out one marble at a time, the first time you reach in you pull out marble numbers. Second time you reach in, you put that marble back in, right. Number seven goes back in the bag. You mix it up and you reach in again. The, uh, the next number let's say is 13. All right. So you had seven. Now you have 13. If you were to reach in and pull out a marble 37 times. Do you think that you would pull out one through 37 individually? At least once every single time. In other words, you're not going to reach in the bag 37 times and pull out all 37 numbers. You're going to have some repeats. What the law of thirds basically says is that you will get about two thirds of those marbles pulled out. Right. And they'll be put back in, but I mean, there'll be marked like you pull out seven and you write down seven. Okay. You keep that for data. You put the number seven back in and I'm sorry, did that? I apologize. Um, but you put the number seven marble back in and you mix it up and you reach in again by the fifth, sixth or seventh time. You're probably get a repeat. You might pull out that number seven marble again. Right. And so with those repeat numbers, It means that basically you're going to have about a third of the marbles, the numbers on the marble's not picked out. Do you pulled your 37th Marvel, you reach in 37 times after you've done that, you're going to have some marbles that never got pulled out. And the law of thirds basically states that you are right around a third. Of those numbers that didn't get pulled out that are still left in the bag that were never seen. So the, what we do is we take that philosophy or that law, um, and we apply it to, to a game or a strategy to give us an edge of some sort, because. Blackjack, for example, if you're a card counter and you're sitting at the table and you count each card has a value and you count it in your head, you keep tally on that. And you're halfway through the deck. And if you're a good card counter, you can probably tell me, tell me how many face cards are still left in the deck versus, you know, how many are have been used. Right? So you have an idea of what is still to come, but that's because each event is connected to the previous. So the cards get dealt and they get pushed to the side. They don't get shuffled back in the deck. Right? Yeah. That makes sense. Okay. Now with roulette though, the ball goes into one pocket and picks one number and that's the result, but that number doesn't come out, it stays there. So the ball goes around again and could still land in that pocket again. Right. Okay. So that is, what's known as an independent event. They have no connection from the previous past. So roulette loves to show you a, usually 10 to 12 number history of what's coming up because the casino knows that we're going to look at that and say, oh, a lot of reds are coming up. It's going to be black next. Well, that's not a guarantee, right? I mean, you have about 50, 50, 50, excuse me. About 50, 50 chance of that happening. One way or another, each time you

go, there's always a 50, 50, and a lot of people like to forecast their next odds based

off their past behavior. Is that correct? That is correct. And though that seems silly in a lot of people's eyes. It actually can, it is proven to be true where depending on how you apply that data, it can give you some sort of forecast of the future, even from independent events. So we look at the last, let's say nine numbers, right? And if those nine numbers, if there isn't a single repeat in those nine numbers, then you know, at some point soon a repeat will come up. It's. Uh, law of physics, it's called the law of thirds. So what we do is then apply the strategy that I'm creating and studying right now. And testing, shall I say it's created, but testing. Um, we, we would apply that system and the law of thirds with your money management to have the whole system work for you. And in your favor, it kind of allows you to predict to some extent, use the word. On the house. Is that what you're saying? Yeah. So it gives, it gives you, it gives you some foresight. To what's coming, which is exactly what the casino does not want you to have. They, uh, they don't want you to have an idea of what's coming, right. That's why when you card count and you know that there are more face cards in the deck, uh, that are still to come a good blackjack player that can count the cards will be able to go, Hey, okay, I'm going to increase my bets now because I am about to get more black jacks with all my face cards, right. Or get twenties and beat the dealer. So. You, if you are able to forecast that the casino frowns upon it, and they actually would say, Hey, listen, you, you're going to have to take your game somewhere else. We appreciate you coming in and all that, but we're giving you too much money because you're counting the cards. You know, what's going to go now, it's time to go. You know, here's a free drink. Get out of here. So, um, don't let the door. And the way up, but so in roulette though, nobody really believes that you can truly forecast what is to come. And that is true. However, based on this law of thirds, it gives you some sort of upper hand on the casino, the casino I laugh. And you, you say like, yeah, yeah, they're all independent events. You can't forecast it, but you can, could you tell me exactly, or could I tell you exactly what number is going to come up? No, I couldn't do that, but if you have no repeaters for quite a while, You know, that one is going to becoming, so you start betting on those numbers, uh, for X amount of bets with your money management strategy to create the success that, yeah, well, certainly it's, it's still a work in progress, but, um, and I want to obviously start off by saying like, you know, with gambling, you want to be careful with that. Be smart with your money. And I don't, uh, don't take exactly what I say, go out and do it without. Proper supervision studying the game, all this sort of stuff, you know? Right. That's my disclaimer. Okay. So, um, you know, something that people get addicted to and do the wrong things with it, right? I mean, you and I were talking about this before that a gun or a brick or whatever is just an inanimate object, right. So it's only good or bad for, for how the person that holds that tool. It's what they do with it. That makes it a good or bad object. So gambling's the same. If you take the time to study the games like I've been trying to do, uh, and learn the systems, money management, things like that, it will be. Uh, you'll be much better off in the end. If you take your time, instead of just jumping right in and going crazy and get going through the highs and lows that definitely easily come with gambling. So, but yeah, Jack and Coke, I know that one of the best things you need to remember, biggest things to remember is, do not drink and get. That's role number. Well, I guess one or two or something it's very high. Um, but for sure, yeah, it's something that I've really dove into and, and it didn't start with casino games, which is eventually what we'll get to. It started for me as a, I was interested in the stock market and it's it's, I would suggest if anyone's interested in this sort of thing to download a roulette simulator and. You know, try it for yourselves. Like just kinda, you know, try this bed, learn how, how the payouts are and the lay of the land of the table, if you will. Right. And get used to it. And then like, as you watch other people show you their strategies, it'll all start to make sense. Like it will kind of start coming together, but download the simulator first it's of course it's fake. Don't trust it as being real right type in YouTube roulette strategies and watch a few and kind of get the lay of the land. You'll you'll start. Feel more confident, the more you practice and the more you test. Okay. Bye, bye testing. I want to be clear that is only on the simulator, not with real money. You know what I mean? Damn. Okay.

So I literally keep saying, okay. I just, I'm trying, I'm trying to agree and stay with you on this conversation. I need to like fix my terminology just so I don't sound like a Dick. It's like, okay, dude. Get to the point that, okay, David, since you're such an expert, And the law of thirds. Can you tell me what I'm going to ask

you next? Well played well played. Um, I'm going to go with, no, I have no idea where you want to take this, so it's on your it's on you. Go for it. W what's one

piece of information or action item for our audience to start implementing today over the core theme that we've

talked about today. Oh man, I think it is so important to, uh, take your time. Don't rush. Um, if you get passionate about something, study it. Uh, for me, this was roulette. So I downloaded a simulator on my phone and I could play the game, learn about the game, uh, learn the payouts and the lay of the land and whatnot, money management, everything. So I would say download a simulator of a game that you like study it, practice. Uh, not real money. Of course we're talking like monopoly money. Right. Uh, and uh, that way, that way it's not too, too expensive of a habit, uh, that definitely can happen. So yeah, I would do that and then just practice and see what you come up with, you know, uh, The more you practice and then you study. I used YouTube as a source for me. I just typed in roulette strategies. Right. And a ton of them came up. So, uh, once you have your roulette simulator, you can play that while you test their systems. And of course, at some point once mine. Gold plated. Ready to go. You can also test that. So how can our viewers get in touch with you? Um, I, you can reach out to me on Twitter or email. My Twitter handle is, uh, D S M J R nine. And it's the same for my email DSM, J r9@yahoo.com and just reach out to me and we can strike up a conversation and I'll share everything I know. Yeah. Thank you so much for having me on the show. Really.

David. Thank you so much. I appreciate you being on the road and take care of.